A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
