It was 60 days prior when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
